Dados is one of the most widely-read social sciences journals in Latin America. Created in 1966, it publishes innovative works, originating from academic research, by Brazilian and foreign authors. Edited by IESP-UERJ, it aims to reconcile scientific rigor and academic excellence with an emphasis on public debate based on the analysis of substantive issues of society and politics.
Dados vol. 44 n. 3 Rio de Janeiro 2001
Abstract
This article presents an analysis of the different theoretical models for the relationship between elections and economics, as well as econometric tests applied to GDP and employment trends in Latin American democracies from 1979 to 1998. Considering that a government’,s possibilities for pushing its policy objectives forward depends on its agenda power, the article analyzes the majority versus minority nature of governments, seeking to define the political conditions that favor a level of macroeconomic evolution in keeping with the objective of maintaining power. On the one hand, the results of empirical tests show a post-electoral deterioration of target indicators, as predicted by theoretical models. On the other hand, greater economic dynamism in election years is observed more frequently in governments with a majority in the legislature, a characteristic of the political system generally associated with greater macroeconomic policy efficiency, but also a condition favoring electoral manipulation of policy.
Keywords: elections, government behavior, economics, political institutions
DOI: 10.1590/S0011-52582001000300002
Elections and macroeconomic performance in Latin America (1979-1998)
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