Dados is one of the most widely-read social sciences journals in Latin America. Created in 1966, it publishes innovative works, originating from academic research, by Brazilian and foreign authors. Edited by IESP-UERJ, it aims to reconcile scientific rigor and academic excellence with an emphasis on public debate based on the analysis of substantive issues of society and politics.
Dados n. 13 Rio de Janeiro 1976
Abstract
The article offers a description of the Delphi forecasting technique and an evaluation of its first application to the Brazilian context. The description is preceded by a discussion of the scientific status of prediction, with the neo-positivist thesis taken as the reference point. The forecasting of political issues by means of the Delphi method proved to be highly adequate in terms of the number of predictions which were actually fulfilled. The evaluation was also applied to a revision of the methodology used in the study.
Delfos e Previsões Políticas: Avaliação de um Experimento
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