Dados es una de las principales publicaciones de ciencias sociales en América Latina. Creada en 1966, publica trabajos inéditos e innovadores, procedentes de investigaciones académicas, de autores brasileños y extranjeros. Editada por IESP-UERJ, tiene como objetivo conciliar el rigor científico y la excelencia académica con un énfasis en el debate público basado en el análisis de temas sustantivos en la sociedad y la política.
Dados n. 13 Rio de Janeiro 1976
Resumen
The article offers a description of the Delphi forecasting technique and an evaluation of its first application to the Brazilian context. The description is preceded by a discussion of the scientific status of prediction, with the neo-positivist thesis taken as the reference point. The forecasting of political issues by means of the Delphi method proved to be highly adequate in terms of the number of predictions which were actually fulfilled. The evaluation was also applied to a revision of the methodology used in the study.
Delfos e Previsões Políticas: Avaliação de um Experimento
Português do Brasil
English