Dados é uma das principais e mais longevas publicações nas ciências sociais no Brasil. Criada em 1966, divulga trabalhos inéditos e inovadores, oriundos de pesquisa acadêmica, de autores brasileiros e estrangeiros. Editada pelo IESP-UERJ, é seu objetivo conciliar o rigor científico e a excelência acadêmica com ênfase no debate público a partir da análise de questões substantivas da sociedade e da política.
Dados n. 8 Rio de Janeiro 1971
Resumo
The article intends to assess the extent to which electoral studies enhance our predictive capability in relation to subsequent substantive policies. It is shown that electoral expert tend to attribute too much predictive value to electoral analysis, explicit acknowledgment that it should not be done notwithstanding. A criticism is then offered on the grounds that 1) the legislative is only one among several others influencial agencies in the governmental decision-making structure, and that 2) there are at least two other highly relevant decision-making structures, namely big private corporations and the decentralized public setors, outside the controlling scope of the electoral process. The electoral impaction on the structure of political representation either by largely renovating it, or by maintaining it. How to measure innovating or routine electoral behavior is then presented in the second part of the article, as a first descriptive model of innovating and/or routine electoral behavior.
Eleição, Representação, Política Substantiva
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