Dados es una de las principales publicaciones de ciencias sociales en América Latina. Creada en 1966, publica trabajos inéditos e innovadores, procedentes de investigaciones académicas, de autores brasileños y extranjeros. Editada por IESP-UERJ, tiene como objetivo conciliar el rigor científico y la excelencia académica con un énfasis en el debate público basado en el análisis de temas sustantivos en la sociedad y la política.
Dados n. 8 Rio de Janeiro 1971
Resumen
The article intends to assess the extent to which electoral studies enhance our predictive capability in relation to subsequent substantive policies. It is shown that electoral expert tend to attribute too much predictive value to electoral analysis, explicit acknowledgment that it should not be done notwithstanding. A criticism is then offered on the grounds that 1) the legislative is only one among several others influencial agencies in the governmental decision-making structure, and that 2) there are at least two other highly relevant decision-making structures, namely big private corporations and the decentralized public setors, outside the controlling scope of the electoral process. The electoral impaction on the structure of political representation either by largely renovating it, or by maintaining it. How to measure innovating or routine electoral behavior is then presented in the second part of the article, as a first descriptive model of innovating and/or routine electoral behavior.
Eleição, Representação, Política Substantiva
Português do Brasil
English