Artigo



Dados n. 13 Rio de Janeiro 1976

Delfos e Previsões Políticas: Avaliação de um Experimento

Souza, Isabel R. O. Gómez de

Resumo

The article offers a description of the Delphi forecasting technique and an evaluation of its first application to the Brazilian context. The description is preceded by a discussion of the scientific status of prediction, with the neo-positivist thesis taken as the reference point. The forecasting of political issues by means of the Delphi method proved to be highly adequate in terms of the number of predictions which were actually fulfilled. The evaluation was also applied to a revision of the methodology used in the study.

Texto completo

Delfos e Previsões Políticas: Avaliação de um Experimento