Dados es una de las principales publicaciones de ciencias sociales en América Latina. Creada en 1966, publica trabajos inéditos e innovadores, procedentes de investigaciones académicas, de autores brasileños y extranjeros. Editada por IESP-UERJ, tiene como objetivo conciliar el rigor científico y la excelencia académica con un énfasis en el debate público basado en el análisis de temas sustantivos en la sociedad y la política.
Dados vol. 49 n. 1 Rio de Janeiro 2006
Resumen
This article explores the relationship between macroeconomic indicators, financial markets, and voting intentions in the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Brazilian Presidential elections. Several hypotheses concerning the relationship between economic performance and politics were tested using a data set containing aggregate measures of self-reported preferences for the Presidential candidates and economic indicators (inflation, unemployment, exchange rate, C-Bond spread, and the São Paulo Stock Exchange Index). The first hypothesis refers to the potential simultaneity between economic indicators and voting intentions. Other hypotheses relate to the varied impact of different economic indicators on the intention to vote for a specific Presidential candidate as opposed to others. The results indicate that retrospective voting, based on the performance of economic fundamentals and not the financial market, predominates in Brazil.
Palabras-clave: Presidential elections; economic indicators; election preferences.
DOI: 10.1590/S0011-52582006000100002
Fundamentos da economia, mercado financeiro e intenção de voto: as eleições presidenciais brasileiras de 1994, 1998 e 2002
Português do Brasil
English