Dados n. 11 Rio de Janeiro 1973

O Novo Modelo Brasileiro de Desenvolvimento

Pereira, Luís Carlos Bresser


From the 19th century up to 1930, the Brazilian economy followed the primary export model which defined the general characteristics of its underdevelopment. After 1930, owing to the crisis of the international capitalist system, a model of industrialization based on the import substitution was inaugurated and prevailed until 1960. ln the early 1960s, a serious economic crisis occurred, being at first mistaken for a process of long run stagnation. But it was really a transitional crisis. This crisis, which was aggravated by a series of conjunctural economic and political factors, had the following structural causes: (1) the exhaustion of the import substitution model, (2) the narrowing of the markets and the industrial idle capacity, steming from the high concentration of incomes, a consequence itself of the highly capital intensive investments that characterized the last stage of the import substitution model, and (3) the high rate of inflation which prevailed in the economy. The strategy employed to overcome this crisis, which was formulated in 1964 and partially reformulated in 1967, established the bases of the new Brazilian model of economic development. The general strategy consisted basically in concentrating still further the incomes. This concentration, however, did not limit itself to the capitalist class, whose profits and savings were to be stimulated, but benefited the middle class as well and its consumption of durables. The lower class, consumer of light consummer goods, was marginalized. Thus, the technologically sophisticated industries producing durables were stimulated (principally the automobile industry), and were transformed into the dynamic industries of the economy. The problem of the narrowing markets was then solved from the demand side. Meanwhite, from the supply side, differences were further accentuated in productivity, technological sophistication, profits and growth

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O Novo Modelo Brasileiro de Desenvolvimento