Dados vol. 39 n. 3 Rio de Janeiro 1996

Brasil e Mundo na Virada do Século

Jaguaribe, Helio


This brief endeavor to appraise the contemporary world's and Brazil's most likely macrotrends at the run of the century starts with some considerations on the problems of predictability and the possibilities for arriving at a forecast endowed with a reasonable capacity to shed light on the most likely future scenarios. The next section analyses how the world's political picture will probably look at the turn of the century, with special note made of China's emergence as superpower. The article concludes with an analysis of Brazilian alternatives at the dawn of the new century, depending upon whether Fernando Henrique Cardoso is re-elected or candidates such as Lula or Maluf end up in front

Palavras-chave: Political macrotrends; Brazil 21st century; parametral ruptures.

DOI: 10.1590/S0011-52581996000300002

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