Dados n. 19 Rio de Janeiro 1978

Depois do Milagre

Soares, Gláucio Ary Dillon


This paper considers possible upcoming changes in the Brazilian political system as a result of the military government's loss of credibility due to its inability to maintain the high rates of economic growth and the control of inflation which have been its ideological cornerstones since 1965. On the basis of opinion surveys, the author analyzes the contradictions posed by an Executive absolutism which is rejected by the government's own party and by public opinion. The author documents the importance of the State in Brazil, particularly as regards the national economy, and concludes that the locus of economic decision-malting has shifted increasingly from the legislature to the core of the state machine which is ruled by a techno-bureaucracy. The paper speculates on a few political alternatives for the country's future: a socialist revolution is considered unviable, as is a return to pre-1964 conditions, given the changes which have affected both the State and civil society from 1964 to the present. The author views as more likely a continuation and acceleration of the currently slow decompression process, with a move from Executive absolutism to an Executive supremacy which would return overseeing functions to Congress and jurisdiction over constitutional matters to the Judiciary, revoking institutional Act No. 5 and the electoral laws now blatantly loaded to favor the government party. Should this be the course of events to come, however, the legislature would become a political forum devoid of decision-making powers as concerns the economy, the fate of which would remain in the hands of the state machine. The paper is based on data from various censuses, economical statistics, public opinion surveys and specific population studies, as well as analyses of presidential speeches. The information was gathered almost in its entirety from published papers and theses, written by various authors and presented in either original or recomputed form. The author has sought to present a quantitatively informed political essay, rather than a research report.

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Depois do Milagre