Dados n. 8 Rio de Janeiro 1971

Dinâmica Eleitoral na índia

McDonough, Peter


The article is a study of three Indian elections at the national level: 1957, 1962 and 1967. Its purpose is to estimate the relative stability or volatility of changes in the electorate a11 well as in the distribution of seats in the national legislature. The first part of the analysis treats the dynamics of the legislative party sistem. With the use of a first-order Markov chain model, it is found that the turnover ln the system is random but not chaotic. A random process containing one dominant element (namely, the Congress Party) among several smaller elements (the opposition parties) tends to exhibit an inertial "stability" for some time. Nevertheless, the system is not in equilibrium, and an internal restructuring of the Congress grand coalition, if not its defeat directly by the opposition, seems likely. The second part of the anysis indicates substantial changes in the distribution of the popular vote. Least-square estimates of transition probabilities (rates of vote-loyalty and switching) reveal that the opposition gains appreciably from the entrance of new voters into the electorate.

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Dinâmica Eleitoral na índia