Dados vol. 27 n. 3 Rio de Janeiro 1984

O Futuro Da Democracia na América Latina

Soares, Gláucio Ary Dillon


Theories that attempt to explain system-level phenomena, such as democracy and totalitarianism, differ from one another in regard to the choice of variables to be investigated, their relationships, and order of importance. They do coincide, however, in their deterministic bent. In fact, the author argues, such theories tend to view such systemic phenomena in a structural, interrelated, and relatively stable manner. The analysis of indicators of democracy and totalitarianism in Latin America, however, suggests that such phenomena are far from stable. Using data for 1930, 1948, 1976, and 1981, this paper shows that correlations between such indicators are very low and that the non-explained variance is very large. The author concludes that Latin American political systems are not stable, hence theories that purport to explain them cannot be based on models that assume stability.

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O Futuro Da Democracia na América Latina