Dados n. 14 Rio de Janeiro 1977

As Eleições e a Dinâmica do Processo Político Brasileiro

Santos, Wanderley Guilherme dos


The interaction between the electoral process and the dynamics of Brazil's political system disclosed two important aspects of the current conjuncture, with probable implications for the immediate future: first, and in contrast with most current analysis, the author holds that the 1974 and 1976 elections were not atypical but, on the contrary, proved quite compatible with pre-1966 Brazilian voting patterns. Considering the country's institutional framework, the elections which were, so to speak, abnormal were those of 1970 and 1972. Secondly, the author considers the government's difficulties in implementing its political decompression project to be basically the result of decisions made by the government itself and which hindered that project; rather than of a growing or threatening opposition. Having shaken both the military and the civilian coalitions which had supported the system since 1968, the Geisel administration did not manage to replace them with new allies who could ensure the viability of its political program within the security margin demanded by the system's military backing. Prospects for the immediate future will therefore depend on the political implications which the government may eventually attach to an analysis of the 1976 electoral results.

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As Eleições e a Dinâmica do Processo Político Brasileiro